Gothitelle · Dragons Exalted (DRX) #57

13 comments

1. 

   feyblade

   (13 years ago)

   I have to wonder if Doom Decree initially involved  only one coin flip. At this point, stage 2 pokemon NEED that much power to compete with the ridiculous basics

   Reply
   • 

     coolestman22feyblade

     (13 years ago)

     75% autokill chance with Fliptini? Too broken.

     I think a 45% or whatever it is chance is a lot more realistic.

     I’d rather focus a deck with this around its second attack, though.

     Reply
     • 

       Timothy D. Guy coolestman22

       (13 years ago)

       It’s not actually 75%, that’s what you would call gambler’s fallacy.

       Reply
       • 

         Curtis Timothy D. Guy

         (13 years ago)

         An error in math and an error in logic are two totally different things. Gambler’s fallacy is the irrational belief that luck will increase if you continue to attempt it. Getting the wrong percentage is simply miscalculating probability.

         Reply
         • 

           quazikoCurtis

           (13 years ago)

           Miscalculating probability is part of a gambler’s fallacy. Otherwise, you would just call it gambler’s stupidity.

         • 

           Curtis quaziko

           (13 years ago)

           Sorry… But I’m not sure whether to agree or not. Is there an erroneous belief in dependence here, or is it simply hyperbole? I’m not quite sure if we can tell this from a number alone.

         • 

           Timothy D. Guy Curtis

           (13 years ago)

           Assuming it’s a 75% chance to get heads using fliptini is the fallacy. It’s not 75%, it’s 50% for the first flip, then 50% for the second. You don’t combine the percentages when doing something like this.

         • 

           feybladeTimothy D. Guy

           (13 years ago)

           Uh…
           There are three possibilities in this setting.
           H-
           TH
           TT
           Possibility one occurs 50% of the time. Possibility two occurs 50% of 50% of the time, and possibility three occurs 50% of 50% of the time. In other words, three out of four times, you land heads.

           I guess you could consider yourself right in the sense that IF you activate Fliptini’s effect, you are really only flipping another coin… but I think it can be assumed that when we say “with Fliptini” we mean “with fliptini on your bench.” Only an insane player/troll would opt to reset the flip after landing a confirmed kill.

           In situations in which you must flip multiple coins, yes, the substitution effect of Fliptini is weaker than it would be normally. But Doom Decree 2.0 is not one of those effects.

         • 

           Curtis feyblade

           (13 years ago)

           See, when you put it that way, I can totally see the point. Assuming Fliptini’s presence, rather than its Ability, changes your outcome is fallacy. Not understanding the math is just ignorance, which I will admit to myself.

         • 

           Curtis Timothy D. Guy

           (13 years ago)

           Being fallacious isn’t the same as being wrong.

2. 

   Curtis

   (13 years ago)

   And just to end the argument now, the correct percentage with Fliptini’s ability is 53.5%. We covered this a long time ago with Sharpedo, who, for all intents and purposes, required the same conditions.

   Reply
   • 

     coolestman22Curtis

     (13 years ago)

     Wait, 53.5%? I thought it was lower.

     Reply
     • 

       Curtis coolestman22

       (13 years ago)

       Sorry, 43.75%. I was thinking of something else.

       Reply